Malta’s population could reach 955,229 by 2081 under a higher migration scenario included in Eurostat’s latest long-term demographic projections, according to an analysis published by the Central Bank of Malta.
But that figure is not a forecast of what Malta’s population is expected to become. It is one of several scenarios designed to show how different assumptions about migration, fertility and mortality could reshape the country over the coming decades. Eurostat itself stresses that its population projections are “what-if” scenarios rather than forecasts.
Baseline points to a peak of around 766,000
The EUROPOP2025 baseline projection puts Malta on a considerably lower path. Under its central assumptions, the population would rise to 766,348 in 2073 before declining to 723,710 by 2100.
The Central Bank analysis says the baseline would represent population growth of around 21% between 2025 and 2100. Migration remains a major part of that projected growth, although net migration is assumed to slow considerably over time.
How Malta could reach 955,229
The figure of 955,229 comes from an alternative scenario in which annual immigration from outside the EU is assumed to be 33% higher than under the baseline. Under that scenario, Malta’s population would peak at 955,229 in 2081 and remain above 900,000 later in the projection period.
The difference illustrates just how sensitive Malta’s future population is to migration. At the other end of the scale, a scenario with no further migration after the first projection year would see the population fall to around 530,000 by 2050 and approximately 252,000 by 2100. A lower non-EU migration scenario would keep the population around the 600,000 mark until 2069 before it begins to decline.
Malta currently has around 588,000 residents
These long-term scenarios come as Malta’s population continues to grow. The National Statistics Office estimated the population of Malta and Gozo at 588,254 at the end of 2025, an increase of 2.4% in a year.
Net migration added 13,906 people during 2025 and was the main contributor to population growth. Non-EU citizens accounted for 78.1% of total net migration.
Eurostat data also showed that Malta recorded the highest population growth rate among EU countries between 1 January 2025 and 1 January 2026.
An ageing population remains part of every scenario
The projections are not only about the total number of residents. Malta’s population is also expected to age.
Under the baseline scenario, the old-age dependency ratio, which compares people aged 65 and over with those aged 15 to 64, rises from 26.6% in 2025 to 67.5% by 2100. Under the no-migration scenario, it reaches 104%, meaning people aged 65 and over would outnumber the working-age population.
The Central Bank’s analysis concludes that positive net migration is the leading driver of population growth across the scenarios examined. However, the eventual population could differ substantially depending on how migration, births and deaths actually develop over the coming decades.
Source: Central Bank of Malta, Eurostat and National Statistics Office.
